The Behavior of Molecular Measures of Natural Selection after a Change in Population Size.

Abstract

A common model to describe natural selection at the molecular level is the nearly neutral theory, which emphasizes the importance of mutations with slightly deleterious fitness effects as they have a chance to get fixed due to genetic drift. Since genetic drift is stronger in smaller than in larger populations, a negative relationship between molecular measures of selection and population size is expected within the nearly neutral theory. Originally, this hypothesis was formulated under equilibrium conditions. A change in population size, however, pushes the selection-drift balance off equilibrium leading to alterations in the efficacy of selection. To investigate the nonequilibrium behavior, we relate measures of natural selection and genetic drift to each other, considering both, measures of micro- and macroevolution. Specifically, we use a Poisson random field framework to model{pi} N/{pi}S and{omega} as time-dependent measures of selection and assess genetic drift by an effective population size. This analysis reveals a clear deviation from the expected equilibrium selection-drift balance during nonequilibrium periods. Moreover, we find that microevolutionary measures quickly react to a change in population size and reflect a recent change well, at the same time as they quickly lose the knowledge about it. Macroevolutionary measures, on the other hand, react more slowly to a change in population size but instead capture the influence of ancient changes longer. We therefore conclude that it is important to be aware of the different behaviors of micro- and macroevo- lutionary measures when making inference in empirical studies, in particular when comparing results between studies.