COVID-19 as a continuous-time stochastic process

Abstract

In this article a mathematical treatment of Covid-19 as a stochastic process is discussed. The chance of extinction and the consequences of introducing new Covid-19 infectives into the population are evaluated by using certain approximate arguments. It is shown, in general terms, that the stochastic formulation of a recurrent epidemic like Covid-19 leads to the prediction of a permanent succession of undamped outbreaks of disease. It is also shown that one is able to derive certain useful conclusions about Covid-19 without consideration of immune individuals in a population.