Trade-offs between risks of predation and starvation in larvae make the shelf break an optimal spawning location for Atlantic Bluefin tuna

Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ABT) (Thunnus thynnus) travel long distances to spawn in oligotrophic regions of the Gulf of Mexico. To estimate regional larval ABT mortality, we developed a spatially-explicit, Lagrangian, individual-based model that simulates dispersal, growth, and mortality within realistic predator and prey fields during the spawning periods from 1993-2012. Modelled larval ABT experience high mortality in the first week of feeding with an average mortality rate of 0.53 {+/-} 0.26 d-1 prior to postflexion. Survival ranged from 0.12%-0.32% suggesting that recruitment may vary by a factor of 2.7 due to early life stage mortality alone. Starvation is the dominant source of mortality driven by the early critical period; however, survival is ultimately limited by predation on older individuals. As a result, first-feeding larvae survive better in the more food-rich areas on the shelf, while larger larvae survive better in the open ocean with fewer predators, making the shelf break an optimal spawning area. Our findings support the hypothesis that ABT spawn in oligotrophic regions to minimize predation on their larvae. Ocean modeling tools presented in this study may help facilitate an ecosystem-based management approach to improve future stock assessment models by better resolving the stock-recruitment relationship.