The perfect condition for the rising of superbugs: person-to-person contagion and antibiotic use are the key factors responsible for the positive correlation between antibiotic resistance gene diversity and virulence gene diversity in human metagenomes

Abstract

1.This study aims to understand the cause of the recent observation that humans with a higher diversity of virulence genes in their metagenomes tend to be precisely those with higher diversity of antibiotic-resistance genes. We simulated the transferring of virulence and antibiotic-resistance genes in a community of interacting people where some take antibiotics. The diversities of the two genes types became positively correlated whenever the contagion probability between two people was higher than the probability of losing resistant genes. However, no such positive correlations arise if no one takes antibiotics. This finding holds even under changes of several simulations parameters, such as the relative or total diversity of virulence and resistance genes, the contagion probability between individuals, the loss rate of resistance genes, or the social network type. Because the loss rate of resistance genes may be shallow, we conclude that the contagion between people and antibiotic usage is the leading cause of establishing the positive correlation mentioned above. Therefore, antibiotic use and something as prosaic as the contagion between people may facilitate the emergence of virulent and multi-resistant bacteria in peoples metagenomes with a high diversity of both gene types. These superbugs may then circulate in the community.