Thermally driven sex reversal reveals divergent sex determination dynamics in wild viviparous reptile populations

Abstract

Climate change can threaten population viability by disrupting sex ratios in species whose sex is influenced by temperature. While species with sex chromosomes were historically considered immune, in some species, temperatures can override genetic sex determination via sex reversal, leaving them vulnerable to climate-driven sex ratio shifts. The Tasmanian spotted snow skink (Carinacincus ocellatus), a viviparous reptile with an XX/XY system, provides a compelling case study. While laboratory studies demonstrated that extreme thermal conditions induce female-to-male sex reversal (XX males), its occurrence in the wild remains unexplored, limiting our understanding of actual climate impacts. Integrating 23 years of phenotypic and genetic sexing data across two climatically distinct populations, we provide the first evidence of sex reversal in a wild viviparous reptile. XX reversal occurred in both populations, affecting up to 23.5% of XX births in the warmer population, and was associated with colder minimum daily temperatures. Despite high birth rates in some years, sex-reversed adults were rare. We also identified putative XY females, suggesting bidirectional sex reversal and reinforcing the extreme plasticity of reptilian sex determination. Ultimately, sex reversal could act as an evolutionary trap, potentially compromising population viability as climate instability increases.