The Brightening Sky and the Bug's Advance: Unraveling the Drivers of Oxycarenus lavaterae Range Expansion

Abstract

Analyzing the Lime Seed Bugs (Oxycarenus lavaterae) European range expansion, optimized Maxent models and comprehensive occurrence data (2007-2025) reveal a swift northward and eastward spread, with a distinct "rapid expansion" phase starting in 2017. Key drivers include minimum and maximum temperatures, and importantly, downward shortwave radiation (DSR). Increased DSR, linked to "global brightening" from reduced air pollution since the 1990s, provides crucial thermal benefits. This enables the bugs basking behavior to effectively elevate body temperatures, mitigating cold stress and enhancing overwintering survival in newly colonized northern regions. Focusing on Ukraine and Latvia, optimal habitat is predicted in Ukrainian regions like Transcarpathia, aligning with observed occurrences, while Latvia shows minimal invasion chances. This study rigorously integrates statistical modeling (including SHAP analysis) with biological insights, demonstrating how temperature extremes and DSR act as physiological "bottlenecks" for the species successful adaptation and expansion. The findings advance understanding of insect range dynamics under climate change and regional air quality improvements, providing critical insights for biodiversity conservation and targeted pest management. Furthermore, the presented methodologies facilitate citizen science efforts for ongoing ecological monitoring, empowering broader community participation in tracking environmental responses. Continued interdisciplinary research on these climatic and anthropogenic factors is vital for refining predictive models and informing adaptive management in a changing world.