Estimates of abundance and change in abundance of the Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) along the south coast of South Africa

We investigated the abundance of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) along the south coast of South Africa, from the Goukamma Marine Protected Area (MPA) to the Tsitsikamma MPA, between 2014 and 2016. During this period, 662.3h of boat-based photo-identification survey effort was carried out, and the sighting histories of 817 identified individuals were used to estimate abundance using mark-recapture modelling. The selected open population model (POPAN) provided an estimate of 2,295 individuals (95% CI: 1,157-4,553) for the entire study area. A model estimate was produced for a subset of the study area, Plettenberg Bay, which could be compared with a past estimate for this location (2002-2003). The comparison suggested a 72.3% decrease in abundance, from 6,997 (95% CI: 5,230-9,492) in 2002-2003 to 1,940 (95% CI: 1,448-2,600) in 2014-2016. The decline in abundance was supported by a 72% reduction in mean group size for Plettenberg Bay between the periods. It is essential to be able to assess abundance changes at other locations to inform revision of T. aduncus conservation status in South Africa.