Robust design capture-recapture analysis of abundance and demographic parameters of Indian River Lagoon common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus truncatus)

Abstract

Accurate estimates of abundance are critical to species management and conservation. Common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus truncatus) inhabiting the Indian River Lagoon (IRL) estuarine system along the east coast of Florida are impacted by anthropogenic activities and have had multiple unexplained mortality events, necessitating precise estimates of demographic and abundance parameters to implement management strategies. Mark-recapture methodology following a Robust Design survey was used to estimate abundance, adult survival, and temporary emigration for the IRL estuarine system stock of bottlenose dolphins. Models included a parameter (time since first capture) to assess evidence for transient individuals. Boat-based photo-identification surveys (n = 135) were conducted along predetermined contour and transect lines throughout the entire IRL (2016-2017). The best fitting model included the "transient" parameter to survival, allowed survival to vary by primary period, detection to vary by secondary session, and did not allow temporary emigration. Dolphin abundance ranged from 981 (95% CI: 882-1,090) in winter to 1,078 (95% CI: 968-1,201) in summer with a mean of 1,032 (95% CI: 969 -1,098). Model averaged seasonal survival rate for marked residents ranged from 0.85-1.00. Capture probability ranged from 0.20 to 0.42 during secondary sessions and transient rate from 0.06 to 0.07. This study represents the first Robust design mark-recapture survey effort to estimate abundance for IRL dolphins and provides parameter estimates to optimize sampling design of future studies. Transients included individuals with home ranges extending north of the IRL requiring further assessment of stock delineation. Results were remarkably similar to prior abundance estimates resulting from line-transect aerial surveys and were consistent with a stable population. Data will enable managers to evaluate the impact of fisheries-related takes as well as enable future comparisons of demographic parameters for a dolphin population that continues to sustain large scale mortality events and anthropogenic impacts.