Single neuron activity predicts behavioral performance of individual animals during memory retention

In 1972 Rescorla and Wagner formulated their model of classical Pavlovian conditioning postulating that the associative strength of a stimulus is expressed directly in the behavior it elicits1. Many biologists and psychologists were inspired by this model, and numerous experiments thereafter were interpreted assuming that the magnitude of the conditioned response (CR) reflects an associative effect at the physiological level. However, a correlation between neural activity and the expression of the CR in individual animals has not yet been reported. Here we show that, following differential odor conditioning, the change in activity of single mushroom body output neurons (MBON) of the honeybee predicts the behavioral performance of the individual during memory retention. The encoding of the stimulus-reward association at the mushroom body output occurs about 600 ms before the initiation of the CR. We conclude that the MB provides a stable representation of the stimulus-reward associative strength, and that this representation is required for behavioral decision-making during memory retention.