Attributing the variability in direction and magnitude of local-scale marine biodiversity change to human activities

Abstract

In recent decades, environmental drivers of community change have been associated with changes in biodiversity from local to global scales. Here we evaluate the role of anthropogenic drivers in marine ecosystems as drivers of change in local species richness with a meta-analysis of a novel dataset of temporal change in species richness. We paired biodiversity data from 144 sites with large-scale drivers derived from geospatial databases: human cumulative impact scores, sea surface temperature change, nutrient loading, and invasion potential. Three specific drivers (nutrient inputs, rate of linear temperature change, and non-native species invasion potential) explained patterns in local marine species richness change. We show that these drivers have opposing effects on biodiversity trends. In some cases, variability in drivers can create contrasting directions of change yielding observations of no net change when localities are pooled in an attempt to find a global average. Further, long-term studies reveal different effects of drivers that are not observed in short-term studies. These findings begin to explain high variability observed in species diversity trends at local scales. Formally attributing local species diversity change to human drivers is essential to understanding global patterns of local species diversity change and their consequences.