Humidity shapes the thermal niche of Anopheles stephensi,an invasive malaria vector

Abstract

Vector-borne pathogens cause 17% of all human infectious diseases, and rising global temperatures are shifting the distribution and abundance of mosquito vectors. Because mosquitoes are ectotherms, temperature strongly governs biological rates and physiology; however, mosquitoes also experience other environmental factors that may interact with temperature to shape the thermal performance of traits driving population dynamics. Here, we use a factorial life-table experiment spanning five relative humidities (30-90%) and seven temperatures (16-38{whitebullet}C) to show that humidity modifies the thermal performance of key fitness traits in adult Anopheles stephensi, an invasive urban malaria vector. When integrated into a demographic model, humidity markedly reshapes projections of population fitness relative to temperatureonly models, suppressing growth and contracting year-round suitability in hot, arid regions while enhancing fitness in more humid or high-elevation climates characteristic of South Asia and Africa. Together, these results highlight the need to integrate multiple environmental drivers into projections of climatic suitability, as temperature-only approaches may mischaracterize both the magnitude and spatial structure of mosquito population fitness. More broadly, our findings demonstrate how moisture availability reshapes thermal niches, population fitness, and climate-driven projections of vector distributions.