Mercedes Pascual

Tipping points are typical in ecosystems with higher-order interactions

The paper shows that higher-order interactions in ecosystems lead to abrupt community collapse rather than gradual extinction, challenging traditional pairwise theory.

Humidity shapes the thermal niche of Anopheles stephensi,an invasive malaria vector

This study shows that humidity modifies the thermal performance of key fitness traits in Anopheles stephensi, altering population fitness projections compared to temperature-only models.

Evolutionary trade-offs between functional and immune selection shape multigene families in pathogens

The paper models how immune and functional selection shape multigene families in Plasmodium falciparum under varying transmission conditions, showing immune selection favors fast-recombining genes and reduces fitness variation.

Host Competitive Asymmetries Accelerate Viral Evolution in a Microbe-Virus Coevolutionary System

The paper examines how host competitive asymmetries affect viral evolution in a co-evolutionary system, finding that they extend viral extinction times and accelerate adaptation.

Beyond temperature: Relative humidity systematically shifts the temperature dependence of population growth in a malariavector

The paper shows that relative humidity systematically shifts the temperature dependence of population growth in Anopheles stephensi, a malaria vector.

A paradoxical population structure of var DBLα types in Africa

The paper examines the population structure of DBLα types in Sub-Saharan Africa, finding varying conservation levels across geographical scales and frequencies.

Negative frequency-dependent selection contributes to modular structure of effector repertoires in Pseudomonas syringae

The paper uses a computational model to show that negative frequency-dependent selection contributes to the modular structure of effector repertoires in Pseudomonas syringae.

Influenza incidence prediction for the United States: an update for the 2018-2019 season

The paper updates an epidemiological model to predict influenza incidence for the 2018-2019 season and evaluates its accuracy for the 2017-2018 season.

Evolution-informed forecasting of seasonal influenza A (H3N2)

The paper demonstrates a method to forecast seasonal H3N2 influenza incidence by integrating evolutionary changes with an epidemiological model, achieving accurate real-time predictions for the 2016/2017 season.

Role Of Competition In The Strain Structure Of Rotavirus Under Invasion And Reassortment

The paper uses a stochastic model to study how competition and reassortment affect rotavirus strain structure, finding that new strains displace existing ones in open antigenic niches.

Conservation of single amino-acid polymorphisms in Plasmodium falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 and association with severe pathophysiology

The paper identifies single amino-acid polymorphisms in PfEMP1 homology blocks associated with severe malaria pathophysiology and disease outcomes.