Ocean current models predict spatial structure for coastal biodiversity

Genomic diversity provides the raw material through which all evolutionary processes occur. Accurately describing how environmental features affect patterns of diversity shows promise in predicting the resilience of populations and entire communities to dynamic environments and novel stressors. Identifying the contribution of purely neutral responses to environmental effects can be difficult, especially across large spatial ranges with many covarying environmental features. Using an individual-based model of larvae carried by ocean currents, we predict patterns of neutral genomic diversity in a passively dispersed coastal species, suggesting large geographic regions of relative homogeneity with ancestry determined by the nearest "upstream" population with limited larval input. The genomic identity that dominates each region sharply transitions at the next such interruption, generating hierarchical structure and violating assumptions of isolation-by-distance. We call these upstream populations "lineage source regions" (LSRs), and we find strong concordance between LSR model predictions and an empirical population genomic survey of a keystone salt marsh mussel (Geukensia demissa). We quantitatively validate model performance and goodness-of-fit, updating baseline predictions of genomic diversity patterns from the classic isolation-by-distance model to this LSR framework. This spatially explicit coastal ancestry model has potential for generalization across passive dispersing species.