Prediction and evolution of the molecular fitness of SARS-CoV-2 variants: Introducing SpikePro

Abstract

The understanding of the molecular mechanisms driving the fitness of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its mutational evolution is still a critical issue. We built a simplified computational model, called SpikePro, to predict the SARS-CoV-2 fitness from the amino acid sequence and structure of the spike protein. It contains three contributions: the viral transmissibility predicted from the stability of the spike protein, the infectivity computed in terms of the affinity of the spike protein for the ACE2 receptor, and the ability of the virus to escape from the human immune response based on the binding affinity of the spike protein for a set of neutralizing antibodies. Our model reproduces well the available experimental, epidemiological and clinical data on the impact of variants on the biophysical characteristics of the virus. For example, it is able to identify circulating viral strains that, by increasing their fitness, recently became dominant at the population level. SpikePro is a useful instrument for the genomic surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, since it predicts in a fast and accurate way the emergence of new viral strains and their dangerousness. It is freely available in the GitHub repository github.com/3BioCompBio/SpikeProSARS-CoV-2.