Spatial scenario of tropical deforestation and carbon emissions for the 21st century

Tropical forests are disappearing at an alarming rate due to human activities. Here, we provide spatial models of deforestation in 92 countries covering all the tropical moist forests in the world. Our results question the global effectiveness of protected areas in curbing deforestation and allow reinterpreting the impact of roads on deforestation in terms of both accessibility and forest fragmentation. Using our models, we derived high-resolution pantropical maps of the deforestation risk and future forest cover for the 21st century under a "business-as-usual" scenario based on the deforestation rates observed in the 2010s. Under this scenario, 48% (39-56%) of tropical moist forests are expected to disappear during the course of the 21st century, and 41 tropical countries will have lost all their forests by 2100. The remaining forests in 2100 will be highly fragmented and located in remote places, preferentially in protected areas, far from roads and villages, and at high elevations. We also show that future deforestation will likely concern forests with higher aboveground carbon stocks, and hence that carbon emissions from tropical deforestation are expected to increase (from 0.432-0.585 Pg/yr in 2020 to 0.583-0.628 Pg/yr in 2100). Considering also the decrease in carbon uptake in aboveground biomass (from 0.589 Pg/yr in 2000 to 0.312 Pg/yr in 2100) associated with the decrease in forest cover, tropical moist forests would become a major net carbon source in the 21st century under this scenario.