Latitudinal scaling of aggregation with abundance and its consequences for coexistence in species rich forests

The search for simple principles underlying the complex spatial structure and dynamics of plant communities is a long-standing challenge in ecology1-6. In particular, the relationship between the spatial distribution of plants and species coexistence is challenging to resolve in species-rich communities7-9. Analysing the spatial patterns of tree species in 21 large forest plots, we find that rare species tend to be more spatially aggregated than common species, and a latitudinal gradient in the strength of this negative correlations that increases from tropical to temperate forests. Our analysis suggests that latitudinal gradients in animal seed dispersal10 and mycorrhizal associations11,12,13 may jointly generate this intriguing pattern. To assess the consequences of negative aggregation-abundance correlations for species coexistence, we present here a framework to incorporate the observed spatial patterns into population models8 along with an analytical solution for the local extinction risk14 of species invading from low abundances in dependence of spatial structure, demographic parameters, and immigration. For example, the stabilizing effect of the observed spatial patterns reduced the local extinction risk of species when rare almost by a factor of two. Our approach opens up new avenues for integrating observed spatial patterns into mathematical theory, and our findings demonstrate that spatial patterns, such as species aggregation and segregation, can contribute substantially to coexistence in species-rich communities. This underscores the need to understand the interactions between multiple ecological processes and spatial patterns in greater detail.