A methodological approach to developing evidence-based communication guidelines for Populus spp. cultivation on agricultural land

Abstract

This study developed and applied a methodology and framework to analyse decision-making and identify communication needs related to Populus spp. cultivation on agricultural land in southern Sweden, where adoption remains limited despite significant biomass potential. By comparing farmers willingness and actual cultivation decisions, and linking these to expectations on economic, agronomic, and environmental outcomes, we moved beyond attitudes to analyse choices. We used Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) to predict cultivation decisions and willingness to cultivate using Net Value of Expected Impact (NVEI) as a predictor. Integrating decision-making with willingness revealed drivers of adoption and barriers persisting despite positive attitudes. NVEI scores strongly predicted both willingness and cultivation decisions, with regional contrasts evident. In the Forested region, farmers anticipated greater economic and agronomic benefits but had lower expectations for biodiversity, suggesting a knowledge gap and a need for communication providing comparative evidence on biodiversity benefits. In the Lowland region, higher expectations for environmental benefits highlight the need for tailored information on biodiversity, landscape value, and ecological connectivity. Low scores for workload and management ease across all groups indicate uncertainty about practical aspects, supporting the need for targeted communication. Overall, regionally tailored, evidence-based guidelines can support informed decision-making.