Phantom histories of misspecified pasts

Abstract

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWThe observation that even a tiny sample of genome sequences from a natural population contains a plethora of information about the history of the population has enticed researchers to use these data to fit complex demographic histories and make detailed inference about the changes a population has experienced through time. Unfortunately, the standard assumptions required to make these inferences are often violated by natural populations in such ways as to produce specious results. This paper examines two phenomena of particular concern: when a sample is drawn from a single sub-population of a larger meta-population these models infer a spurious recent population decline, and when a genome contains loci under weak or recessive purifying selection these models infer a spurious recent population expansion.