Spatial Modeling of B. anthracis: Implicated Risk Areas and Trends under climate change Scenarios in Ethiopia

Abstract

The causative agent of Anthrax B. anthracis has long been known to cause disease in animals and humans. Its worldwide distribution includes Ethiopia as an endemic country to the disease. The current study was aimed at identifying and developing risk maps, in areas that are suitable for the persistence of anthrax spores under climate change scenarios by using anthrax occurrence data and other predictor variables in MaxEnt model. A total of 158 occurrence locations were used as inputs along 10 current bioclimatic, future climatic grids and topographic covariates to develop a model and evaluate the individual contribution of each variable to the presence of B. anthracis in Ethiopia. Its concluded that the most important variables limiting the distribution of B. anthracis in Ethiopia were Temperature, Precipitation, and Elevation. Under HADGEM2-ES future modeling scenarios except for RCP 8.5/2050 there is a decrease in areas of suitability from Current scenario under RCP 2.6/2050, RCP 2.6/2070, and RCP 8.5/2070. Subtle expansions of suitable areas are identified under RCP 2.6/2050 and RCP 2.6/2070 in the eastern parts of Ethiopia. However, there are small portions of southern areas that are expected to lose suitable habitats under all future scenarios. These findings could help health management authorities to formulate prevention and control strategies of anthrax in suitable areas under B. anthracis.