Productivity drives demography and sex structure in a declining waterfowl species

Demographic models are crucial for uncovering the mechanisms underlying changing populations trajectories and structure and to identify the drivers of such changes. Common pochard populations of North east/North west Europe have experienced a sharp decline accompanied by an increase in male proportions among adults since the mid-1990. We used a two-sex, two-stage deterministic matrix population model, to perform a prospective perturbation analysis and to explore, through simulations, some plausible causes underlying the observed decline and change in sex structure. We show that Common pochard populations are more sensitive to changing survival than to changes in productivitys components (clutch size, nest survival...). However, due to an environmental variance much higher than that of survival, components of productivity, especially nest survival, would be the main drivers of Common pochard populations growth rate, a finding supported by empirical data. More importantly, we show that although sex-specific changes in survival at any stage of the life cycle are potent drivers of both population growth rate and changing sex ratio, there is no need to resort to them for explaining the increasing proportions of males such as observed in Common pochard. Because adult males display higher survival than adult females (0.74 against 0.64 on average), any factor affecting recruitment (nest or first year survival) increases the weight of adults into the populations and hence the proportion of males. Thus, in species displaying sex-biased mortality, such as many ducks, decreasing recruitment can underly declining population size and changes in sex structure at the same time, emphasising the importance of accounting for males in monitoring schemes and demographic models.