Disentangling key species interactions in diverse and heterogeneous communities: A Bayesian sparse modeling approach

Abstract

1Modeling species interactions in diverse communities traditionally requires a prohibitively large number of species-interaction coefficients, especially when considering environmental dependence of parameters. We implemented Bayesian variable selection via sparsity-inducing priors on non-linear species abundance models to determine which species-interactions should be retained and which can be represented as an average heterospecific interaction term, reducing the number of model parameters. We evaluated model performance using simulated communities, computing out-of-sample predictive accuracy and parameter recovery across different input sample sizes. We applied our method to a diverse empirical community, allowing us to disentangle the direct role of environmental gradients on species intrinsic growth rates from indirect effects via competitive interactions. We also identified a few neighboring species from the diverse community that had non-generic interactions with our focal species. This sparse modeling approach facilitates exploration of species-interactions in diverse communities while maintaining a manageable number of parameters.