Abiotic niche predictors of long-term trends in body mass and survival of Eastern Himalayan birds

The synergistic impacts of climate change and habitat degradation threaten tropical species worldwide. However, how species abiotic niches affect their demographic vital rates and phenotypic changes under anthropogenic change remains poorly understood. Using an 11-year mark-recapture dataset from primary and selectively logged forest in the Eastern Himalayas, we investigated how temperature-humidity niche characteristics predicted body mass and survival trends in understorey insectivorous birds over time in each habitat. Our results show that logged forest is hotter and drier than primary forest, and the arthropod community shows dramatic shifts in composition upon selective logging. In understorey insectivores, the degree of dissimilarity between species-specific primary and logged forest niches was strongly and negatively correlated with survival and body mass trends in logged forest. Here, we show that temperature-humidity niche shifts in response to anthropogenic habitat modification can impact demographic vital rates and body condition crucial for population persistence. This work has the potential to inform prompt, targeted conservation efforts toward species that are the most threatened in a warmer and more degraded world.