Why multiple infections favour virulent parasites

Abstract

It is now a fact that several strains/species (hereafter types) of parasites circulate in natural host populations. Parasite polymorphism can even occur within the same host, where distinct parasite types can interact in various ways. This can affect their transmission and, therefore, their evolution. We still lack general predictions regarding the evolution, in such multiple infection contexts, of virulence - the infection-induced host mortality, essentially because its emanation from within-host growth was often ignored so far. Here, we explicitly investigate within-host interactions, within-host competition outcomes, epidemiological dynamics and evolutionary invasibility using a formalism as general as possible. Focusing on chronic dimorphic infections caused by horizontally-transmitted microparasites, we apply both dynamical systems and probabilistic approaches to this bottom-up sequence of dynamics to explore the evolutionary outcomes. We show that within-host growth traits are under strong selective pressure and when small mutations affect them, most of the surviving mutants are more virulent than their resident. We thus identify a robust and unavoidable selection bias towards higher virulence.