Decadal signatures of seasonal and ENSO-driven selection in microbial populations in distant oceans

Despite the crucial role of the ocean microbiome for global ecosystem processes, its response to global change remains poorly understood. Global change will exert selection on microbial species through changes in the genetic composition of their populations, favouring strains that are better adapted to new conditions. Analyzing long-term genomic variation in microbial populations inhabiting climatically comparable but oceanographically distinct regions may provide insights into their responses to future environmental conditions. We analyzed coastal marine microbiomes from two distant long-term observatories with Mediterranean-type climates but contrasting oceanographic regimes: the Blanes Bay Microbial Observatory (BBMO; Northwestern Mediterranean Sea) and the Microbes in the Coastal Region of Orange County (MiCRO; California coast, Pacific Ocean). Sampling conducted at least monthly during 15 and 10 years, respectively, yielded 1,535 Metagenome-Assembled Genomes (MAGs) in BBMO and 1,068 MAGs plus 187 Single-Amplified Genomes (SAGs) in MiCRO. Among these, we found 250 genomes with intraspecific (>95% genome similarity) representatives occurring at both sites. In contrast, at the strain-level threshold ([≥]99% genome similarity), only 13 BBMO genomes matched 15 closely related representatives in MiCRO. As genome similarity increased, we observed a shift from cosmopolitan to more coastal distributions and a slight increase in genome size, pointing to niche adaptation. Across both time series, we observed widespread seasonal population structure, with most genomes (~70%) showing significant seasonal structuring of variant composition. Moreover, in MiCRO, ~76% of the tested genomes also showed El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-associated structure in variant composition beyond seasonal effects. Focusing on a Prochlorococcus genome with intraspecific representatives at both locations (>96% genome similarity) we further found recurrent seasonal mutations and non-synonymous to synonymous mutation ratios (pN/pS) from multiple genes, together with signatures of positive selection (higher pN/pS) coinciding with El Nino events in MiCRO. This suggests an imprint of ENSO in marine microbial populations. Thus, beyond seasonality, long-term climatic oscillations may shape microbial populations. This has implications for understanding how the ocean microbiome will respond to long-term environmental change and prolonged disturbances through population-level genomic variation.