Humans could become the greatest driver of biosphere net gain in Earth history, but we are currently the second fastest driver of biosphere loss

Abstract

Human activity is transforming the shape, size, and resilience of Earths biosphere, degrading and augmenting Holocene baseline conditions at various scales, and replacing the wild biosphere with an anthropogenically modified one. We evaluate episodes of biosphere change throughout Earth history and compare them with contemporary and near-future anthropogenic changes, developing the concept of biosphere disruptors - agents that force global-scale macroevolutionary change. Transient disruptors are short-lived agents (mean 8.0x105 years), including massive volcanism and asteroid impacts. Persistent disruptors, including atmospheric and ocean oxygenation and land plant evolution, remain in the Earth System over long timescales (mean 1.6x108 years). In the geological record, transient disruptors are associated with temporary but sometimes massive biosphere degradation, whereas persistent disruptors are associated with sustained biosphere enhancement. Most anthropogenic biosphere impacts resemble those of past transient disruptors, globally degrading wild biomass and biodiversity. Humanity is driving the second highest rate of biosphere degradation in Earth history after the Cretaceous-Palaeogene bolide impact. However, humanity is the first disrupting agent capable of reflecting on and potentially transforming its impact on planetary habitability. If we can achieve this, humanity could drive the greatest rate of increase in planetary habitability in Earth history on centennial to millennial timescales.