Identifying Ecological Restoration Priority Areas through a Function-Structure-Dynamic Framework: Integrating Ecological Security Patterns and Future Land-Use Simulation in the Anhui Section of the Yangtze River Basin

Rapid urbanization has intensified ecological degradation and threatened ecosystem sustainability in the Yangtze River Basin. This study proposes a Function-Structure-Dynamic (FSD) framework integrating ecological protection importance assessment, ecological security pattern (ESP) construction, and future land-use simulation to identify ecological restoration priorities in the Anhui section of the Yangtze River Basin. Ecologically important areas were identified by coupling ecosystem services and ecological vulnerability. MSPA, landscape connectivity analysis, resistance surface modeling, and circuit theory were applied to construct the ESP, while the PLUS model simulated land-use change and ecological risks in 2032. Results identified 37 ecological sources covering 6,901.39 km{superscript 2} and 84 ecological corridors with a total length of 916.80 km. Ecological pinch points, barrier areas, and 17 ecological warning areas were further delineated. Based on these findings, four ecological restoration zones were proposed with differentiated management strategies. The FSD framework effectively integrates ecological functions, spatial structure, and future dynamics, providing scientific support for ecological restoration and sustainable territorial spatial planning in rapidly urbanizing regions.