Habitat percolation transition undermines sustainability in social-ecological agricultural systems

Abstract

Steady increases in human population size and resource consumption are driving rampant agricultural expansion and intensification. Habitat loss caused by agriculture puts the integrity of ecosystems at risk, and threatens the persistence of human societies that rely on ecosystem services. We develop a spatially explicit model describing the coupled dynamics of an agricultural landscape and human population size to study the effect of different land-use management strategies, defined by agricultural clustering and intensification, on the sustainability of the social-ecological system. We show how agricultural expansion can cause natural habitat to undergo a percolation transition leading to abrupt habitat fragmentation that feedbacks on humans decision making, aggravating landscape degradation. We found that agricultural intensification to spare land from conversion is a successful strategy only in highly natural landscapes, and that clustering agricultural land is the most effective measure to preserve large connected natural fragments, avoid severe fragmentation, and thus, enhance sustainability.