'Resistance is futile': Weaker selection for resistance during larger epidemics further increases prevalence and depresses host density

Abstract

What determines how much resistance hosts evolve? One might intuit that hosts evolve higher resistance when parasites are more abundant. However, the opposite pattern can arise due to costs of resistance. Here we illustrate with mathematical, experimental, and field approaches how ecological context can increase parasite abundance and select for lower resistance. Resistance is futile when all host genotypes become sufficiently infected. To make this argument, we first analyzed an eco-evolutionary model of parasites, hosts, and hosts resources. We determined eco-evolutionary outcomes for resistance (mathematically, transmission rate) and densities along gradients that drive epidemic size. When epidemic drivers are high, hosts evolve lower resistance, amplifying epidemics and decreasing host density. Experimental mesocosms qualitatively agreed. In the experiment, higher supply of nutrients drove larger epidemics of survival-reducing fungal parasites. Evolving zooplankton hosts were less resistant at high nutrients than at low. Less resistance, in turn, was associated with higher infection prevalence and lower host density. We also analyzed the size of naturally occurring epidemics, finding a broad, bimodal distribution of epidemic sizes consistent with the eco-evolutionary model. Together, our three approaches supported predictions that high epidemic drivers lead to evolution of lower resistance which drives higher prevalence and lower host density.