Improved potential analysis for inadequate ecological data

Potential analysis is used in many ecological studies to infer whether or not an ecosystem can have alternative stable states, to estimate the tipping points and, to assess the resilience of ecosystems. The main reason behind its frequent use is that such a frequency-based analysis is a minimalistic modelling strategy and therefore, is well-suited for limited ecological data with measurement errors. It has been used extensively in tree cover studies to discern alternative states of savannah and forest, the regime upon which savannah and forest coexist and, their corresponding resilience. Classical potential analysis may produce biased results due to inherent theoretical and practical limitations. This letter introduces a more sophisticated approach to address these shortcomings and enhance predictive capabilities regarding ecological dynamics, especially when working with insufficient data whose incorrect analysis can significantly impact management strategies.