Ecosystem dynamics and resilience

Forest-weighted causal correlation: A scalable framework for causal inference in ecological time series

This paper introduces FORCC, a causal inference framework for ecological time series, which identifies directional causality and reduces false positives from synchronization, revealing ecological interactions in marine data.

Hierarchical permutation entropy regression identifies decadal decline in the intrinsic predictability of butterfly populations

This study uses a Bayesian hierarchical regression framework to detect increasing permutation entropy in UK butterfly populations over four decades, suggesting greater environmental stochasticity.

Parameter estimation and identifiability analysis of stability and tipping points in potentially bistable ecosystems

The paper assesses whether standard ecological data can identify bistability and tipping points in ecosystems using synthetic data and profile likelihood analysis.

Bottleneck species determine resilience in successional communities

The paper identifies bottleneck stages in successional communities that determine resilience, showing that targeting these stages enhances recovery.

Complexity-multistability relationships: How does species diversity shape the number of alternative stable states?

The paper develops a framework to quantify multistability in ecological communities and finds that competitive interactions increase the number of alternative stable states with higher species diversity.

Network-mediated diffusion produces disordered self-organization in vegetation

The paper introduces a network diffusion model to explain disordered vegetation patterns in arid regions, showing that different transport scales lead to distinct pattern types.

Stochasticity and heterogeneity restrict tipping points and alternative stable states

The paper examines how stochasticity and heterogeneity affect tipping points in ecological models, finding they reduce the likelihood of alternative stable states and make transitions less abrupt.

Memory stabilizes complex ecological systems but delays full restoration

The paper investigates memory effects in ecological systems, showing they enhance stability and short-term recovery but delay full restoration.

Still Lost in Definitions: How Resilience Is Used in Ecology

This study analyzes how resilience is defined and measured across 594 ecological studies, finding that while metrics vary, most studies use a shared set of six quantitative dimensions.

Noise and determinism in Trinidadian guppy population dynamics

This study uses long-term guppy population data to show stochasticity alters population stability and resilience through noise-induced bifurcations and ecological differences.

Tipping points are typical in ecosystems with higher-order interactions

The paper shows that higher-order interactions in ecosystems lead to abrupt community collapse rather than gradual extinction, challenging traditional pairwise theory.

Biological invasion drives ecosystem state and metabolism across tipping points

This study shows that crayfish invasion caused a regime shift in pond ecosystems, altering metabolism and state with long-term consequences.

Phenotypic plasticity as a route to population shifts via tipping points

The paper develops a mathematical framework showing phenotypic plasticity can induce tipping points in populations due to feedback mechanisms between environment, phenotype, and population density.

Delayed predator response increases ecosystem's vulnerability to collapse under a changing environment

The paper shows that slow predator responses to environmental changes can lead to ecosystem collapse, even with small changes if the rate exceeds a threshold.

Tipping Points and Emergent Phases of Species Diversity in Mutualistic Ecological Networks under Global Warming

This study identifies climate-induced tipping points in mutualistic ecological networks under global warming, showing three phases of species diversity and the impact of warming rate on ecosystem resilience.

Ecological synchrony in human-modified landscapes under a changing climate

The paper reviews how human activities alter ecological synchrony across scales and provides case studies on quantifying these impacts using big data.

Intermittent precipitation and spatial Allee effects drive irregular vegetation patterns in semiarid ecosystems

This study shows that intermittent precipitation and spatial Allee effects create irregular vegetation patterns and influence ecosystem resilience in semi-arid environments.

Spatial Trophic Dynamics Shape and are Shaped by Desertification Transitions

This study introduces a tri-trophic model to explore how vegetation patterns and trophic interactions influence desertification transitions and ecosystem resilience.

Maximum entropy networks predict fluctuations and stability of food web energetics

The paper uses maximum entropy networks to predict how food webs respond to perturbations by analyzing their intrinsic fluctuations and stability.

A nonequilibrium framework for community responses to pulse perturbations

The paper introduces a nonequilibrium framework to analyze community responses to pulse perturbations, showing that amplification of perturbed abundances depends on community state in the short term but not in the long term.

Local and Spatial Processes Shape the Collapse and Recovery of Mutualistic Networks

This study investigates how spatial structures and dispersal rates affect ecosystem recovery and mutualistic network persistence, finding that scale-free networks recover faster at intermediate dispersal rates.

Emergent self-inhibition governs the landscape of stable states in complex ecosystems

The paper shows that self-inhibition determines stable states in ecosystems, with high-biomass states being more likely due to lower self-inhibition.

Tracking community change via network coherence

This paper introduces Ecological Coherence (EC) and Ecological Network Coherence (ENC) to analyze how species co-responses to environmental changes are structured and how they predict ecological instability.

Global shifts in vegetation compositional resilience over the past 8,000 years

This study analyzes vegetation compositional resilience over 8,000 years using fossil pollen records, identifying anthropogenic land use as the main driver of decline since 1.6 to 4.4 thousand years ago.

Early warning signals do not predict a warming-induced experimental epidemic

This study examines whether early warning signals can predict warming-induced epidemics in Daphnia magna-Ordospora colligata and finds they are not reliable indicators.

Vegetation clump size and number as indicators for alternative stable states in semi-arid ecosystems

This study links vegetation clump morphology to bistability in semi-arid ecosystems, suggesting clump changes can indicate an impending desertification transition.

Global Stability and Tipping Point Prediction in a Coral-Algae Model Using Landscape-Flux Theory

This paper applies landscape-flux theory to a coral-reef model to identify early warning indicators for ecosystem transitions, finding that some indicators can predict tipping points earlier than traditional methods based on critical slowing down.

Accelerating loss of resilience in Bornean rainforests

The paper analyzes resilience loss in Bornean rainforests using satellite data, finding accelerated resilience decline after 2004 linked to climate, human activity, and biodiversity.

Revealing unseen dynamical regimes of ecosystems from population time-series data

This paper introduces an empirical dynamic model to predict unseen dynamical regimes in ecosystems using population time-series data and environmental drivers.

Pathway diversity: a resilience metric sensitive to agency applied to a lake eutrophication problem

This paper introduces pathway diversity as a resilience metric that incorporates agency and applies it to a lake eutrophication model to assess its sensitivity to agency and compatibility with existing metrics.