On the mechanistic roots of an ecological law: parasite aggregation

Parasite aggregation, a recurring pattern in macroparasite infections, is considered one of the "laws" of parasite ecology. Few hosts have a large number of parasites while most hosts have a low number of parasites. Phenomenological models of host-parasite systems thus use the negative-binomial distribution. However, to infer the mechanisms of aggregation, a mechanistic model that does not make any a priori assumptions is essential. Here we formulate a mechanistic model of parasite aggregation in hosts without assuming a negative-binomial distribution. Our results show that a simple model of parasite accumulation still results in an aggregated pattern, as shown by the derived mean and variance of the parasite distribution. By incorporating the derived statistics in host-parasite interactions, we can predict how aggregation affects the population dynamics of the hosts and parasites through time. Thus, our results can directly be applied to observed data as well as can inform the designing of statistical sampling procedures. Overall, we have shown how a plausible mechanistic process can result in the often observed phenomenon of parasite aggregation occurring in numerous ecological scenarios, thus providing a basis for a "law" of ecology.