Timing the regional spread of PRRSV-2 variants across the United States

Abstract

Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus 2 (PRRSV-2) represents a major threat to the global swine industry. The epidemiological dynamics of PRRSV-2 are characterized by the recurrent annual emergence of dozens of variants. Long-distance spread of PRRSV-2 is largely driven by animal shipments. Spatiotemporal dynamics of PRRSV-2 in the USA have been explored; however, how fast variants spread to new regions after their emergence remains unclear, and this information could improve preparedness. To address this, we analyzed 14,835 sequences, retrieved from the Morrison Swine Health Monitoring Project (MSHMP), representing 156 variants sampled from 2015 to 2024, covering the five major swine-producing regions in the USA: the Upper Midwest (UM), Lower Midwest (LM), Atlantic Seaboard (AS), Northeast (NE), and Great Plains (GP). Time to spread was assessed using the time-to-dispersal event analysis and waiting time analyses. Genetic diversity was measured using Hill numbers. The UM had the highest variant richness (n=123), followed by the LM (n=47), AS (n=35), NE (n=45), and GP (n=38). Of the 62 variants that initially emerged in the UM, 17 later spread to other regions. The UM also received the highest number of variant introductions (n=24), followed by LM (n=14), NE (n=14), AS (n=4), and GP (n=7), highlighting regional differences in connectivity and risk. Our results suggest faster dispersal corridors among interior regions (e.g., GP to UM and LM to UM, [~]1.2-2.0 years) and slower for coast to interior pathways (AS to interior, [~]2-3 years). These findings may help anticipate the risk of PRRSV-2 variant introduction and provide more accurate dispersal time estimates, which are useful for improving epidemiological models and disease preparedness.