Predictive uncertainty in mechanistic models of cellular processes calibrated to experimental data

Abstract

Mathematical models are often used to explore network-driven cellular processes from a systems perspective. However, a dearth of quantitative data suitable for model calibration leads to models with parameter unidentifiability and questionable predictive power. Here we introduce a Bayesian and Machine-Learning based Measurement Model approach to explore how quantitative and non-quantitative data constrain models of apoptosis execution within a missing data context. We find two orders of magnitude more ordinal (e.g. immunoblot) data are necessary to achieve accuracy comparable to quantitative (e.g. fluorescence) data. Notably, ordinal and nominal (e.g. immunostain) non-quantitative data synergize to reduce model uncertainty and improve accuracy. Further, model prediction accuracy and certainty strongly depend on rigorous data-driven formulations of the measurement, and the size and make-up of the datasets. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of a data-driven Measurement Model approach to identify model features that could lead to informative experimental measurements and improve model predictive power.