Short-term forecasts of Aedes aegypti relative abundance to enhance mosquito control situational awareness
Utkarsh Bhosekar, Paulo Cesar Ventura, Megan D. Hill, Allisandra G. Kummer, Shreeya Mhade, Jagadeesh Chitturi, Chalmers Vasquez, John-Paul Mutebi, John Townsend, Maria Litvinova, André Barretto Bruno Wilke, Marco Ajelli
This paper develops a multi-model forecasting framework to predict Aedes aegypti abundance up to 4 weeks ahead, showing improved performance with longer horizons and highlighting challenges in low activity or atypical peak periods.
bioRxiv · Jul 7, 2026 · PreprintEcology