Disaggregation Regression and Multi-Model Evaluation for Predicting Dengue Risk in Africa
Jenicca Poongavanan, Tim C. D. Lucas, Gaspary Mwanyika, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, José Lourenço, Marcel Dunaiski, Túlio de Oliveira, Houriiyah Tegally
This paper uses disaggregation regression to predict dengue incidence in Africa from aggregated data, showing better alignment with reported cases than environmental suitability models.
bioRxiv · Jun 17, 2025 · PreprintEcology