Tipping Points and Emergent Phases of Species Diversity in Mutualistic Ecological Networks under Global Warming

Abstract

Global warming poses a severe threat to ecosystem resilience and biodiversity, potentially driving species loss, declining diversity, and ecosystem collapse. Accurately predicting tipping points of ecological resilience under global warming remains a fundamental challenge. Here, we develop a theoretical framework to identify climate-induced tipping points in mutualistic ecological networks, capturing critical transitions under warming scenarios. We show that rising temperatures, increasing intraspecific competition, and deteriorating mutualistic interaction can drive ecosystems through three distinct dynamical phases of species diversity: stable full coexistence, stable partial coexistence, and total extinction. Notably, ecosystems with low species abundances are particularly vulnerable, facing heightened risks of diversity loss and extinction. Moreover, the warming rate modulates these transitions, as slower warming grants endangered species a window of time within which to adjust and attenuate the loss of resilience. Applying this framework to assess various emission mitigation pathways, we find that "pollute first, clean up later" scenarios pose a threat to biodiversity, leading to irreversible biodiversity losses even after subsequent emission reductions. Our findings offer critical insights into the timing and mechanisms of ecological tipping points under climate change and underscore the urgency of proactive mitigation strategies.