Stochasticity in viral infection and host response: A competition between speed and reliability

Abstract

The early stages of viral infection constitute a race between viral proliferation and interferon (IFN)-mediated defenses. Recent experiments on single-cell viral kinetics have demonstrated a high degree of stochasticity in the timing of viral release, but how this shapes the competition between virus and host remains unclear. We formulate a stochastic spatial model to address the question of how variability in the release of viral progeny and IFN affect the early infection dynamics. The model distinguishes between two types of timing noise: stochasticity in the initiation of release, and variability in the secretion time of individual virions. Our key result is an asymmetry in how noise affects outcomes: For the virus, stochastic initiation accelerates expansion, while for the host, effective containment via IFN benefits from precisely timed responses. For the secreting states, we find that a broader secretion profile (higher variability in particle release times) is always advantageous. In all cases, we find that stochasticity in signal timing plays a huge/central role in the early infections states.