Bryan Thomas Grenfell

The paper develops a Bayesian model to show that defective viral genomes modulate type I interferon dynamics by both inducing and suppressing IFN through cumulative exposure, explaining how pandemic viruses evade innate immunity.

The paper shows that vaccine imprinting influences susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 variants in children by linking immune history, antibody neutralization, and infection risk.

This study links a drought-driven yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil to changes in mosquito and primate behavior, showing that multiple interventions were key to ending the epidemic.

This paper develops a unifying framework to predict pathogen strain and species competition outcomes by generalizing ecological coexistence theory to account for resource overcompensation.

The paper develops a spatially explicit model of in vitro viral infection with DIPs, showing how they affect IFN response and plaque morphology.

The paper analyzes H5N1 avian influenza dynamics in Dalmatian pelicans, showing higher transmissibility and shedding in non-reservoir birds and ineffective carcass removal as a control measure.

The paper quantifies how respiratory pathogens return to pre-pandemic dynamics after interventions, finding that susceptible population replenishment rates determine their resilience to perturbations.

The paper develops a stochastic framework to model how immunity influences viral adaptation rates, showing how parameters like immunity strength and transmissibility shape phylodynamic curves and escape variant emergence risks.

This paper develops a framework to predict pathogen mutual invasibility and co-circulation using ecological theory, finding near-universal mutual invasibility across major pathogen systems.

This study analyzes the evolution of the human influenza A NS gene using temporal distance measures, revealing a continuous genetic backbone and a deviation in the 2009 pandemic.