Climate change has desynchronized insect and vegetation phenologies across Europe

Abstract

Climate change is drastically affecting the phenologies of species worldwide, including shifts in development1-3. The potential impact of climate change on the synchronicity of plant-insect phenology is particularly concerning since the stability of pollination networks and food chains depends on their tight temporal dependencies4-6. Furthermore, the recently reported "insect armageddon"7 makes it urgent to establish trends and identify primary drivers of plant-insect phenological synchrony. Here, coupling high-resolution remote sensing and citizen science data across Europe over 34 years, we examine the differences in occurrence dates of 1,584 herbivorous insects across four orders and the corresponding dates of leaf unfolding. We find that 61.2% of the vegetation and insect phenologies have become highly asynchronous, with vegetation phenology advancing four-fold faster than insect phenology. These trends were modulated by insects life-cycles and taxonomic order. A primary driver of this phenological mismatch is the higher sensitivity of vegetation phenology than insect phenology to climate, which has prevented insects from matching the pace of plant phenological advance in the growing season. Our analyses provide a unique continental overview and underlying mechanisms of the asynchronicity between vegetation and insect phenologies, thus enhancing our ability to predict and manage its potential cascading ecological effects.