Burning down the mouse: Effects of wildfire and post-fire reseeding on Sin Nombre virus prevalence in its reservoir host

Abstract

Worldwide, physical habitats and biological communities are being reshaped by wildfire. Such changes have obvious potential to alter pathogen ecology, yet few studies, outside of those focused on ectoparasites, have tested the effects of wildfire on pathogen prevalence in wildlife. Even fewer have focused on the impacts of strategies for post-fire remediation on pathogen circulation. Here, we investigated the effect of wildfire and wildfire mitigation on the prevalence and viral load of Sin Nombre virus (SNV) infection in its reservoir host, the western deer mouse, using a study design of matched burned, unburned, and post-burn reseeded sites in northern New Mexico. In total, we screened 411 individual deer mice for SNV via RT-qPCR and analyzed the effect of wildfire and wildfire mitigation on relative mouse abundance, individual infection probability, site-level prevalence and viral load. Relative abundance was highest at reseeded sites, and model selection indicated that habitat structure, particularly the gradient from closed canopy to open-herbaceous habitat, was consistently associated with increased relative abundance. Similarly, SNV prevalence was significantly higher in reseeded sites than either burned or unburned sites but did not differ in burned versus unburned sites. Viral load did not differ between burn history types, and zero-inflated gamma hurdle models did not identify any strong predictors of viral load. Serendipitously, we were also able to investigate the impacts of an El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on patterns of infection in a subsample of sites that were studied during and one year after an ENSO year and found that SNV prevalence increased significantly post-ENSO. Both reseeding and ENSO deliver resource pulses that can support increases in mouse density and thereby enhance SNV transmission. The impacts of post-fire management practices on SNV prevalence in its reservoir host that were revealed in this study should be considered when implementing such strategies and when utilizing treated areas.