Towards an eco-epidemiological framework for managing freshwater crayfish communities confronted with crayfish plague

Wildlife diseases figure prominently among the main causes of biodiversity loss worldwide. Especially fungal and fungus-like pathogens are on the rise, wreaking havoc across the tree of life by threatening species persistence and destabilizing ecosystems. A worrisome example are freshwater crayfish species in Eurasia and Oceania, facing the dual challenge of introduced competitive crayfish species and an introduced water mold (Aphanomyces astaci) causing crayfish plague. A. astaci locally extinguishes susceptible native crayfish populations, while non-native individuals (mostly from North America) remain largely unaffected. Despite its significant impact and its [~]150 years of presence in Europe, studies and disease management recommendations for crayfish plague that are firmly rooted in epidemiological theory are scarce. Here, we present a practical eco-epidemiological framework to understand how multi-species crayfish communities react to crayfish plague introductions. The framework is based on the observation that the dynamics of crayfish communities are mainly determined by life-history characteristics, within- and among-species competition, effects of generalist predators (including fishing), and host-pathogen interactions. From this ecological and epidemiological context, we derive fundamental epidemiological metrics, single-host species and community-level basic reproduction numbers (R0). We investigate how host species densities affect the likelihood of a disease outbreak in a crayfish community, and we demonstrate that a communitys R0 value is simply the sum of the communitys single-host species R0 values, adjusted for competition and predation. We further demonstrate how R0 can be used to guide preventative and mitigation actions for crayfish communities. For example, we show how R0 expressions - even without a detailed parametrization - can be used to construct regional risk rankings for different crayfish communities, for an effective allocation of resources to local conservation plans. Our eco-epidemiological framework will also be of interest to the management of other aquatic host-pathogen systems with water-borne pathogen transmission as the main route of pathogen spread.