Woody species with high wood density are more vulnerable to global change in South China

To cope with global change, plants shift their distributions. Distribution shifts tend to be more dramatic across rare species. We here questioned how the distribution range of eight rare woody species is changing and how effectively the plants cope with the shift. We further addressed whether plant traits that could predict those parameters. We carried out Maxent Distribution Modelling on species observation records before 1980 under present climatic conditions and four future (CMIP5) scenarios. To assess how effectively plants cope with migration we assessed species observations after 1980. We finally collated plant trait data on three traits. Most distribution ranges expanded northwards. Temperature driven rather than precipitation driven variables described distribution shifts best. Wood density summarized well the susceptibility of those plants to climate change. There are many woody species in tropical and subtropical areas for which we have very little information available. We identified, subject to our small pool of species, a plant trait, wood density, that could summarize responses to global change that could potentially be used as a tool in conservation ecology to prioritize conservation efforts.