Reduced size of larvae and small fish linked to warming and reduced prey density

Body size is a integrative trait that has declined across ecological assemblages in the last decades. Changes in body size of early life stages and small-bodied fish are driven by complex interactions between size-dependent mortality, and temperature- and food dependent growth, and can have consequences for recruitment to the adult stock and food availability to predators. While the mechanisms can be difficult to disentangle using observational data alone, simple indicators such as mean size can provide important information about ecosystem conditions as oceans rapidly change. Using 30 years of observations from the IBTS-MIK ichthyoplankton survey in Skagerrak and Kattegat in combination with sea surface temperature data, we investigated changes in the body size of early life stages and small-bodied fishes for 10 commercial and non-commercial species using geostatistical mixed models, and trends in prey density using generalized additive models. We found positive associations between chlorophyll-a concentration and length in 8 species (3 significant), and negative associations between temperature and length in 9 species (4 significant). Standardized indices of length revealed negative trends over time for all species since 2010, and all species were smaller in 2024 compared to 2000. The decline in size since 2010 varied between 30%-1%, with a mean of 14% and 9% for species predominantly found in Skagerrak and Kattegat, respectively. The trend of decreased body sizes since 2010 coincides with rapid declines in Calanus spp. -- a key prey predicted to decline in this area at the edge of their distribution area due to climate change. In Skagerrak it also coincides with a decline in the density of large copepods (> 0.25 mm). The synchronous declines in larval size across taxonomically diverse species experiencing different rates of exploitation suggest a common response to changing environmental conditions, which could have cascading effects throughout marine food webs.