Landscape structure and dispersal rate drive large scale catastrophic shifts in spatially explicit metapopulations

Even when environments deteriorate gradually, ecosystems may shift abruptly from one state to another. Such catastrophic shifts are difficult to predict and reverse (hysteresis). While well studied in simplified contexts, we lack a general understanding of how catastrophic shifts spread in realistic spatial contexts. For different types of landscape structure, including typical terrestrial modular and riverine dendritic networks, we here investigate landscape-scale stability in metapopulations made of bistable patches. We find that such metapopulations usually exhibit large scale catastrophic shifts and hysteresis, and that the properties of these shifts depend strongly on metapopulation spatial structure and dispersal rate: intermediate dispersal rates and a riverine spatial structure can largely reduce hysteresis size. Interestingly, our study suggests that large-scale restoration is easier with spatially clustered restoration efforts and in populations characterized by an intermediate dispersal rate.