Modelling the Putative Ancient Distribution of the Coastal Rock Pool Mosquito Aedes togoi

The coastal rock pool mosquito, Aedes togoi, is found in coastal east Asia in climates ranging from subtropical to subarctic. However, a disjunct population in the Pacific Northwest of North America has an ambiguous heritage. Two potential models explain the presence of Ae. togoi in North America: ancient Beringian dispersal or modern anthropogenic introduction. Genetic studies have thus far proved inconclusive. Here we described the putative ancient distribution of Ae. togoi habitat in east Asia and examined the climatic feasibility of a Beringian introduction into North America using modern distribution records and ecological niche modeling of bioclimatic data from the last interglacial period (~120,000 BP), the last glacial maximum (~21,000 BP), and the mid-Holocene (~6000 BP). Our results suggest that suitable climatic conditions existed for Ae. togoi to arrive in North America through natural dispersal as well as to persist there until present times. Furthermore, we find that ancient distributions of suitable Ae. togoi habitat in east Asia may explain the genetic relationships between Ae. togoi populations identified in other studies. These findings indicate the utility of ecological niche modeling as a complementary tool for studying insect phylogeography.