New mutations, old statistical challenges

Based on targeted sequencing of 208 genes in 11,730 neurodevelopmental disorder cases, Stessman et al. report the identification of 91 genes associated (at a False Discovery Rate [FDR] of 0.1) with autism spectrum disorders (ASD), intellectual disability (ID), and developmental delay (DD)--including what they characterize as 38 novel genes, not previously reported as connected with these diseases1.\n\nIf true, this would represent a substantial step forward. Unfortunately, each of the two discovery analyses (1. De novo mutation analysis and, 2. a comparison of private mutations with public control data) contain critical statistical flaws. When one accounts for these problems, fewer than half of the genes--and very few, if any, of the novel findings--survive. These errors have implications for how future analyses should be conducted, for understanding the genetic basis of these disorders, and for genomic medicine.\n\nWe discuss the two main ana ...