Insights into B Cell and Antibody Kinetics Against SARS-CoV-2 Variants Using Mathematical Modelling

Abstract

B cells and antibodies are crucial in protecting against infections like SARS-CoV-2. However, antibody levels decline after infection or vaccination, reducing defences against future SARS-CoV-2 infections. To understand antibody production and decline, we developed a mathematical model that predicts germinal center B cell, long-lived plasma cell, memory B cell, and antibody dynamics. Our focus was on B cell activation and antibody generation following both primary and secondary SARS-CoV-2 infections. Aligning our model with clinical data, we adjusted antibody production rates for germinal center B cells and plasma B cells during primary and secondary infections. We also assessed antibody neutralization against Delta and Omicron variants post-primary and secondary exposure. Our findings showed reduced neutralization against Omicron due to its immune evasion. In primary and secondary exposures to Delta and Omicron, our predictions indicated enhanced antibody neutralization in the secondary response within a year of the primary response. We also explored waning immunity, demonstrating how B cell kinetics affect viral neutralization post-primary infection. This study enhances our understanding of humoral immunity to SARS-CoV-2 and can predict antibody dynamics post-infection or vaccination.