Statistical significance and biological relevance: The case of Nosema ceranae and honey bee colony losses in winter.

Managed and wild insect pollinators play a key role in ensuring that mankind is adequately supplied with food. Among the pollinating insects, the managed Western honey bee providing about 90% of commercial pollination is of special importance. Hence, diseases as well as disease causing pathogens and parasites that threaten honey bees, have become the focus of many research studies. The ectoparasitic mite Varroa destructor together with deformed wing virus (DWV) vectored by the mite have been identified as the main contributors to colony losses, while the role of the microsporidium Nosema ceranae in colony losses is still controversially discussed. In an attempt to solve this controversy, we statistically analyzed a unique data set on honey bee colony health comprising data on mite infestation levels, Nosema spp. infections and winter losses continuously collected over 15 years. We used various statistical methods to investigate the relationship between colony mortality and the two pathogens, V. destructor and N. ceranae. Our multivariate statistical analysis confirmed that V. destructor is the major cause of colony winter losses. When using cumulative data sets, we also found a significant relationship between N. ceranae infections and colony losses. However, determining the effect size revealed that this statistical significance was of low biological relevance, because the deleterious effects of N. ceranae infection are normally masked by the more severe effects of V. destructor on colony health and therefore only detectable in the few colonies that are not infested with mites or are infested at low levels.