Differential adaptive potential and vulnerability to climate-driven habitat loss in Brazilian mangroves

Geographic and environmental differences have been identified as factors influencing Brazilian mangrove trees genetic diversity. Geographically, distinct species have convergent spatial genetic structures, indicating a limited gene flow between northern and southern populations. Environmentally, genomic studies and common garden experiments have found evidence of local adaptations along the latitudinal gradient of the Brazilian coast. However, little is known about how such adaptive heterogeneity could be affected by a rapidly changing climate in the coming decades, and the combination of deforestation and climate-induced habitat loss may affect these forests and their genetic diversity. Here, we applied two genomic-environmental association methods to model the turnover of potentially adaptive alleles for two dominant mangrove trees: Avicennia germinans and A. schaueriana. We analyzed a total of 134 individuals from six populations of A. germinans and ten populations of A. schaueriana spanning the Brazilian coast from 1 {degrees}S to 28 {degrees}S. Gradient forest models identified temperature-related variables as the most important predictors for A. germinans outlier loci, whereas both temperature and precipitation were important for A. schaueriana. We modeled allele frequencies and projected them for future climatic scenarios to estimate adaptively driven vulnerability. We assessed climate-driven habitat loss through climate-only distribution models and calculated annual deforestation rates for each sampled region. Finally, to assess the vulnerability of individual populations, we combined the environmental suitability, deforestation data, and adaptive vulnerability projections. For both species, subtropical populations presented a higher vulnerability than equatorial populations to climate-driven habitat loss. We also identified deforestation rates at the sampled sites that were alarmingly higher than the global average mangrove deforestation rate. Our results provide improved estimates of the impacts of ongoing climate change and human-caused habitat loss on the distribution of mangroves and highlight the importance of site-based conservation strategies that consider individual subtropical and equatorial mangrove forests.