Age-dependent impact of the major common genetic risk factor for COVID-19 on severity and mortality

BackgroundThere is considerable variability in COVID-19 outcomes amongst younger adults--and some of this variation may be due to genetic predisposition. We characterized the clinical implications of the major genetic risk factor for COVID-19 severity, and its age-dependent effect, using individual-level data in a large international multi-centre consortium. MethodThe major common COVID-19 genetic risk factor is a chromosome 3 locus, tagged by the marker rs10490770. We combined individual level data for 13,424 COVID-19 positive patients (N=6,689 hospitalized) from 17 cohorts in nine countries to assess the association of this genetic marker with mortality, COVID-19-related complications and laboratory values. We next examined if the magnitude of these associations varied by age and were independent from known clinical COVID-19 risk factors. FindingsWe found that rs10490770 risk allele carriers experienced an increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1{middle dot}4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1{middle dot}2-1{middle dot}6) and COVID-19 related mortality (HR 1{middle dot}5, 95%CI 1{middle dot}3-1{middle dot}8). Risk allele carriers had increased odds of several COVID-19 complications: severe respiratory failure (odds ratio [OR] 2{middle dot}0, 95%CI 1{middle dot}6-2{middle dot}6), venous thromboembolism (OR 1{middle dot}7, 95%CI 1{middle dot}2-2{middle dot}4), and hepatic injury (OR 1{middle dot}6, 95%CI 1{middle dot}2-2{middle dot}0). Risk allele carriers [≤] 60 years had higher odds of death or severe respiratory failure (OR 2{middle dot}6, 95%CI 1{middle dot}8-3{middle dot}9) compared to those > 60 years OR 1{middle dot}5 (95%CI 1{middle dot}3-1{middle dot}9, interaction p-value=0{middle dot}04). Amongst individuals [≤] 60 years who died or experienced severe respiratory COVID-19 outcome, we found that 31{middle dot}8% (95%CI 27{middle dot}6-36{middle dot}2) were risk variant carriers, compared to 13{middle dot}9% (95%CI 12{middle dot}6-15{middle dot}2%) of those not experiencing these outcomes. Prediction of death or severe respiratory failure among those [≤] 60 years improved when including the risk allele (AUC 0{middle dot}82 vs 0{middle dot}84, p=0{middle dot}016) and the prediction ability of rs10490770 risk allele was similar to, or better than, most established clinical risk factors. InterpretationThe major common COVID-19 risk locus on chromosome 3 is associated with increased risks of morbidity and mortality--and these are more pronounced amongst individuals [≤] 60 years. The effect on COVID-19 severity was similar to, or larger than most established risk factors, suggesting potential implications for clinical risk management. FundingFunding was obtained by each of the participating cohorts individually.